MoRGen: Mixture-of-Resolutions Generative Forecasting for Irregularly Sampled Medical Time-Series Data

Abstract (source: OpenReview · © authors)

Autoregressive generative models for irregularly sampled clinical time-series data are increasingly used for zero-shot risk forecasting. Prior work typically adopts a single fine-grained discretization of time, where tokens are generated at one fixed, predetermined temporal resolution. We demonstrate that the zero-shot accuracy of individual generative forecasters varies with temporal resolution: performance can degrade when the model resolution is poorly matched to the temporal dynamics of the endpoint being evaluated. We then propose MoRGen (Mixture-of-Resolutions Generation), which fuses forecasts from generative experts trained at multiple temporal resolutions using a low-capacity task-specific mixture, improving performance across tasks with different temporal dynamics. Across multiple horizons and outcomes on three independent clinical datasets, MoRGen achieves lower binary cross-entropy (BCE) and statistically significant AUROC gains over autoregressive generative models that forecast tokens at a fixed temporal resolution.

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